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Metadados

1. Identificação
Tipo de ReferênciaArtigo em Evento (Conference Proceedings)
Sitemtc-m16b.sid.inpe.br
Código do Detentorisadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S
Repositóriocptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.31.19.23
Última Atualização2006:04.15.23.00.26 (UTC) administrator
Repositório de Metadadoscptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.31.19.23.16
Última Atualização dos Metadados2021:02.10.19.01.59 (UTC) administrator
Chave SecundáriaINPE-13815-PRE/9001
Chave de CitaçãoCardosoSilv:2006:AsFoPe
TítuloAssessing Forecast Performance of the empirical model to forecast precipitation in the South and Southeast Regions of Brazil
FormatoCD-ROM; On-line.
Ano2006
Data de Acesso04 maio 2024
Tipo SecundárioPRE CI
Número de Arquivos1
Tamanho461 KiB
2. Contextualização
Autor1 Cardoso, Andrea de Oliveira
2 Silva Dias, Pedro Leite
Grupo1 DMD-INPE-MCT-BR
Afiliação1 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
2 Instituto de Astronomia Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo (IAG/ USP)
Endereço de e-Mail do Autor1 andreaca@cptec.inpe.br
2 pldsdias@model.iag.usp.br
EditorVera, Carolina
Nobre, Carlos
Endereço de e-Mailandreaca@cptec.inpe.br
Nome do EventoInternational Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, 8 (ICSHMO).
Localização do EventoFoz do Iguaçu
Data24-28 Apr. 2006
Editora (Publisher)American Meteorological Society (AMS)
Cidade da Editora45 Beacon Hill Road, Boston, MA, USA
Páginas517-520
Título do LivroProceedings
Tipo TerciárioPoster
OrganizaçãoAmerican Meteorological Society (AMS)
Histórico (UTC)2005-10-31 19:23:16 :: andreaca@cptec.inpe.br -> administrator ::
2005-11-11 01:47:00 :: administrator -> adm_conf ::
2005-12-16 01:06:19 :: adm_conf -> andreaca@cptec.inpe.br ::
2006-03-29 19:48:14 :: andreaca@cptec.inpe.br -> administrator ::
2006-04-18 21:11:48 :: administrator -> lise@dpi.inpe.br ::
2010-12-28 12:36:40 :: lise@dpi.inpe.br -> administrator ::
2010-12-29 15:58:01 :: administrator -> lise@dpi.inpe.br :: 2006
2010-12-29 16:06:04 :: lise@dpi.inpe.br -> administrator :: 2006
2010-12-29 18:53:46 :: administrator -> banon :: 2006
2011-01-02 17:15:04 :: banon -> administrator :: 2006
2021-02-10 19:01:59 :: administrator -> :: 2006
3. Conteúdo e estrutura
É a matriz ou uma cópia?é a matriz
Estágio do Conteúdoconcluido
Transferível1
Palavras-ChaveSST
empirical model
forecast
precipitation
South Brazil
Southeast Brazil
ResumoEmpirical models can provide reliable forecasts through the knowledge of the conceptual relationship between the predictand and predictors. An empirical model of monthly precipitation forecast (predictand) in South and Southeast Brazilian is presented in this paper, based on estimates of the variability of the Atlantic Ocean (OA) and Pacific Ocean (OP) sea surface temperature (SST) as predictors. The data sets of SST and precipitation were reduced in dimension: (a) A cluster analysis defined the monthly precipitation regions with homogeneous characteristics and (b) The rotated principal component analysis allowed to reduce the dimension of SST time series. The empirical model, based on linear regression analysis, was designed to forecast the average precipitation in homogeneous regions based on the time series of the scores of the principal components of SST as predictors. Lagged forecasts up to 4 months were performed. The results indicate similarities in the skill of the empirical model using SST modes with different lags. The SST scores constitute a robust set of predictors of the precipitation mainly over the SE Brazil, pointing out a significant contribution of modes with high amplitudes in the tropical and subtropical OP, completed by the SST variations in the subtropical belt of the South Atlantic. The positive extreme values of precipitation were under-estimated by the empirical model in all homogeneous regions. In the case of the South Region of Brazil the precipitation also are over-estimated. The annual cycle and the low frequency variations are well captured by the empirical model.The best performance of the model is obtained in the Southeastern region of Brazil. The empirical model forecasts are better than the climatological forecasts in all rain categories in the homogeneous regions.
ÁreaMET
TipoClimate predictions
Arranjourlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > DIDMD > Assessing Forecast Performance...
Conteúdo da Pasta docacessar
Conteúdo da Pasta source
shconf_cardoso&silvadias.doc 29/03/2006 16:48 815.5 KiB 
Conteúdo da Pasta agreementnão têm arquivos
4. Condições de acesso e uso
URL dos dadoshttp://mtc-m16b.sid.inpe.br/ibi/cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.31.19.23
URL dos dados zipadoshttp://mtc-m16b.sid.inpe.br/zip/cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.31.19.23
Idiomaen
Arquivo Alvo517-520.pdf
Grupo de Usuáriosadministrator
andreaca@cptec.inpe.br
administrator
banon
Visibilidadeshown
Detentor da CópiaSID/SCD
Permissão de Leituraallow from all
5. Fontes relacionadas
Unidades Imediatamente Superiores8JMKD3MGPCW/43SKC35
Acervo Hospedeirocptec.inpe.br/nobre/2005/06.02.21.14
cptec.inpe.br/walmeida/2003/04.25.17.12
6. Notas
Nota1
Campos Vaziosarchivingpolicy archivist callnumber contenttype copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel dissemination documentstage doi edition identifier isbn issn label lineage mirrorrepository nextedition notes numberofvolumes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project readergroup resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarymark serieseditor session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark url versiontype volume


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